Purchases of consumer packaged goods during this holiday season should rise between 9.5% and 11.5% over last year, although most of that is due to ongoing sales bumps from the pandemic, according to the latest forecast from the Consumer Brands Association.

The CBA based its prediction on the fact that in the last four months, year-over-year sales for consumer goods have gone up more than 10%. The expected gain from holiday purchases is about another 3%.

This relatively small bump comes because consumers don’t expect to spend a lot of money on holiday-related consumer goods: 44% believe they will spend the same and another 40% say they will spend less, with only 15% saying they’ll spend more.

This coincides with holiday plans. Authorities are urging Americans to avoid large holiday gatherings, and 75% of the CBA’s survey respondents plan to follow that advice, staying home or going to a nearby home.

The CBA also noted that during the pandemic, online grocery has expanded, with 42% of Americans reporting that they used some type of online ordering for grocery products in the last six months.