The average EU broiler price is up 29% year-on-year. However, costs have stabilized since early April of this year, a trend followed by other meats, signaling a possible break in upward price pressures.

Meanwhile, gas prices continue to be at the center of economic talks as the EU agri-food sector backs a new European Commission (EC) “save gas for a safe winter” proposal.

Meat production in the EU this year is forecasted to see reductions of 0.5% for beef and 4.7% for pigmeat. However, sheep and goat outputs are anticipated to stabilize this year. The same is expected for poultry.

“EU poultry production is due to stabilize in 2022. The EU broiler price is high enough to compensate for the high input costs and highly pathogenic avian influenza,” according to the EC Summer 2022 agriculture report.

UK-Europe highly intertwined
The UK has highly increased its imports of meat products, with caveats in some categories.

Beef demand has remained quite strong, with exports expected to grow 4% in 2022, despite the aforementioned decline in beef production by 0.5%. Exports to the UK have been the most positive outlier, considering its market size, growing by 32% compared to last year and solidifying its position as the primary buyer of EU beef.

However, restrictions on exports of live animals between EU and the UK have impeded this market, leading to a decline of 10% in Q1 2022. The EC doesn’t expect “frictionless exports” across the two markets.

Pig herds have plummeted 4.7% in the EU, during the first half of the year.Beef prices have seen a moderate yet progressive decline in the EU since May.

Meanwhile, new EC data shows that pig herds continue to plummet, declining 4.7%, as countries across Europe see a reduction of pig farms. The EC explains the decline is a result of high input costs, environmental concerns, reduced exports and the African Swine Fever.

Highly volatile pig exports with China are expected to decrease by 40% in 2022 as China tries to boost its domestic production. Overall, EU pig exports are expected to decrease by 9.6% in 2022, with the UK being an outlier as its imports will augment by a third.

Similarly, the UK demand for poultry will be as strong as for beef and pigmeat and the country will buy 25% more chickens from the EU.

So many food imports may come at a price, as inflation continues to run its course in the UK, wher it jumped to 9.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics. UK inflation surged to an over 40-year high, with food prices accelerating 1.2% only in June.

Market optimism
Today the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has resumed – albeit partially – its operation, supplying Germany with Russian gas via the Baltic Sea. The EU avoids, for now, the “nightmare” scenario of complete gas shutdowns. 

Meanwhile, some reconciliatory moves with Russia – such as the US rejecting duties on Russian fertilizers and the EU softening its sanctions on Russian banks to assist the global food trade – have given food markets some optimism.

Prior to this morning’s reopening, the EU-agri-food sector backed the EC recommendation to start rationing gas for winter.

Winter is coming?
Yesterday, the EC released its proposal to reduce gas use by 15% until next spring. The plan aims to safeguard supplies to essential industries, including the food sector. The UK has a voracious demand for EU meat products.

Backers to the proposal include FoodDrinkEurope, which represents 4.5 million workers in the F&B industry, Copa-Cogeca, a coalition of farmers and agri-cooperatives in the EU and Primary Food processors, which employs 120,000 workers.

“Over the past year, the costs of electricity, natural gas, fertilizers, transport fuel and external labor have increased dramatically, which is already having a severe impact on European farmers and the EU agri-food sector as a whole,” underscores Pekka Pesonen, secretary general of Copa-Cogeca. 

“These existing difficulties would be exacerbated by gas rationing, which would have an additional impact on the availability and affordability of food and feed. Today’s Communication sends a clear message to member states: give the agri-food sector priority access to gas supplies, right behind households and hospitals,” he highlights.

Primary Food Processors president Huuber Schere also explains that if plants don’t have continuous access to gas, it will lead to waste of perishable raw materials and strain the availability and prices of many food products. 

FoodDrinkEurope shares the same opinion: “Food and drink manufacturers process agricultural commodities in a continuous process that is incompatible with a ‘stop-and-go’ approach. Any interruption in gas supplies could have a significant impact on the overall volume of food and feed that can be produced,” says Dirk Jacobs, director general of the organization.