After two complicated years for mustard, first in 2021 with brutal heat that ravaged half of the crops, followed by 2022 centered on the war in Ukraine – the world’s largest producer of brown mustard seeds Canada is forecasting mustard stocks will stabilize in 2023.

In France, the world’s largest consumer of the condiment per capita with about 1 kg consumed per citizen, restrictions have been in place for months limiting purchases to one can per customer.

Dijon mustard maker Bornier reveals to FoodIngredientsFirst that the Canadian mustard seeds output has been excellent despite worrying droughts in the region.

“Everybody has to buy from Canada,” highlights Rachida Laaouch, key account manager exports at Bornier on the Paris SIAL 2022 trade show floor.

“The output is good because farmers have increased the seed area.”

Canada’s harvest is delayed by three to four weeks due to the unusually high temperatures and drought this summer.

Hoarding, a real problem
With all the world’s Dijon mustard companies having their eyes set on the Canadian harvest, some farmers are opting to sit on their seeds, waiting for higher prices.

Both Bornier and Reine de Dijon, who also talked to FoodIngredientsFirst in Paris, confirmed that hoarding is happening, as some farmers are tempted by higher profit outlooks. 

“We are not extremely optimistic for 2023 as the market is set for a slowdown,” says Luc Vandermaesen, managing director of Reine de Dijon.

Vandermaesen explains that while there is considerably more demand now than supply, consumers might not be able to follow the spiraling up price trend.

Both companies warn that rising costs for all raw materials are also worrisome, with Laaouch flagging that Ukraine was, adding to a primary supplier of brown seeds, a significant glass producer, which also dealt an important blow to mustard manufacturers that rely on glass for its containers.

Shortages and production costs elevated the price of the condiment between 15% and 75% until May, and prices will keep rising, flags Bornier and Reine de Dijon. 

Farmers double pay
Mustard seed farming hectares for both the Burgundy region in France and Canada have been expanded this year to meet consumers’ demand. Reine de Dijon is paying farmers double per hectare than what they did just two years ago. 

The French harvest, similarly to the Canadian one, was not affected by the heatwave, and the crop is 50% higher than the harvest in 2021.

Reine de Dijon points to Christmas 2022 or early 2023 as the moment when the condiment shortages will end in France. 

The company is also taking action to prevent future bad harvests and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. This builds into its research program to obtain more resistant seeds and expand the supply to other regions of France to mitigate the weather conditions.