The UK poultry industry is growing increasingly concerned over a worsening turkey shortage linked to the escalating spread of bird flu. Now, over half of the country’s free range turkeys have been culled or died, leaving the industry at a loss with Christmas just four weeks away.

The avian influenza epidemic is not showing signs of abating as 3.4 million birds died or were culled by the UK government to control the spread of the disease in the 45 days between October 1 and November 15, according to the UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra).

Speaking to FoodIngredientsFirst, British Poultry Council (BPC) spokesperson outlines the latest situation in Britain, pointing out that although the outbreak continues, there will be no shortage of turkeys this festive season.

“Free range turkeys have been the hardest hit. Those who buy free range may see fewer turkeys available as a result but farmers are working hard to mitigate the impacts of what has been an extraordinarily tough year for UK poultry production,” they say. 

“We continue to work with Government on measures that support producers to protect their healthy birds from this awful disease, and to try to produce a turkey for everyone who wants one this Christmas.”

“Half, or 600,000 out of 1.2 million to 1.3 million of free range birds have been lost,” they say. 

This will, most probably, lead to a shortage of free range birds for Christmas. However, consumers will have no problem buying other varieties of turkey. 

Whirlwind of headwinds
Moreover, BPC explains that the sector is “resilient,” even under inflation pressures, trade disputes due to Brexit, the Ukraine war and the worst avian flu epidemic. They affirm farmers will not increase Turkey prices, even as the situation is dire.

Farmers are currently receiving compensation from the UK government for the culling of each bird, which helps alleviate price pressures.

Production costs have increased up to 18%, reported farmer Paul Kelly in today’s Parliamentary session.

50.5 million birds have been culled in Europe due to the outbreak. “Combined with resource pressures and trade issues, current structures must be reviewed to handle the intensity of the outbreak,” notes the BPC.

Farmers have been working closely with authorities exploring ways to support producers like being able to slaughter earlier, freeze and then sell defrosted.

In the UK there have been 137 confirmed cases of avian influenza since the start of October, with more than half of the cases since the disease was detected last year being recorded in the last two months (137 out of the total 257 confirmed cases). 

The European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) highlights that 2021-2022 data shows it is the largest avian flu epidemic in Europe ever, with 50.5 million birds culled. With the US Center for Disease Control also reporting a similar number of birds lost, at 50 million.

Turkey prices out of control
With the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention reporting the death of more than eight million turkeys in the North American country (and 50 million birds in total), consumers across continents will have to face steep costs for this year’s Christmas.

For Thanksgiving consumers paid US$1.56 per pound for a fresh turkey hen, compared to US$0.97 in 2021, data for the US Department of Agriculture.

In Europe, the situation is more dire. According to Eurostat, turkey prices in October averaged 446.5 points – up from 190.27 at the start of the year in the EU – using 2015 as a 100 points baseline. To compare, general meat prices for the euro area (EU19) are only 26.98% higher than in 2015.

“Prices are ultimately a retailer decision,” adds the BPC spokesperson.

The situation is also leading to tight egg supplies, with UK supermarkets limiting the number of eggs consumers can buy. Big chains like Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Marks & Spencer, Morrisons and Tesco are only allowing customers to go home with a couple of boxes of eggs.

Worst outbreak everIn the UK there might be a shortage of free range birds for Christmas. However, consumers will have no problem buying other varieties of turkey. 
The 2021-2022 avian influenza outbreak “is the worst ever seen in the UK,” according to research carried by the House of Commons Library.

“For the first time, an outbreak has continued uninterrupted from one winter to the next. In 2022, infected wild birds were found over the summer months when normally there are no or very few cases. Avian influenza levels have now risen significantly, with wild birds moving around with the colder autumn weather and infecting more kept birds,” say the researchers. 

There are two leading theories, according to the scientists, that could explain the lethality of the current epidemic. One is that genetic mutations have increased the virus ability to replicate and therefore allowing it to spread more efficiently than previous strains. 

The second theory is that mutations have allowed the virus to infect a broader range of species.

Some alternative theories are being presented, like the one by the The Wildlife Trusts, that claims that a dense stocking of poultry leaves flocks open to a rapid spread of the virus. 

"Overall public health risk from currently known influenza viruses at the human-animal interface has not changed, and the likelihood of sustained human-to-human transmission of these viruses remains low,” notes the World Health Organization about the human transmission of the disease.