The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned of a potential large-scale outbreak of the Moroccan Locust across eight provinces in North and Northeast Afghanistan, also dubbed the country’s wheat basket. 

A Moroccan Locust outbreak could result in crop losses ranging from 700,000 to 1.2 million metric tons of wheat this year alone, up to a quarter of the total annual harvest, estimates FAO. This damage translates to between US$280 million and US$480 million in economic loss – as of today’s prices in the country.

The Moroccan Locust is ranked among the most economically damaging plant pests worldwide. 

The sightings of locusts at different development stages have been made in Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Kunduz, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and Takhar, with new reports coming in from the Heart and Ghor provinces.

“The reports of the Moroccan Locust outbreak in Afghanistan’s wheat basket is a huge concern. The Moroccan locust eats more than 150 species of plants, including tree crops, pastures and 50 food crops, all of which grow in Afghanistan,” says Richard Trenchard, the FAO representative based in Afghanistan.

“The situation represents an enormous threat to farmers, communities and the entire country.”

A further threat to food insecurity 
According to FAO, the last two significant outbreaks (20 and 40 years ago) cost Afghanistan around 8 and 25% of its total annual wheat production.

“Harvest forecasts this year are the best we have seen for the last three years – but this outbreak threatens to destroy all these recent gains and dramatically worsen the food insecurity situation later this year and into next year,” Trenchard underscores. 

North and Northeast regions of Afghanistan are prone to Moroccan Locust outbreaks. 

This year has seen “perfect” conditions for a locust outbreak: drought, overgrazing, minimal locust control and the right amount of rainfall in March and April. These conditions created the ideal environment for the insects to hatch and swarm.

In these parts of the country, Moroccan Locust lay eggs in hilly and rangeland areas between May and June, depending on environmental conditions. The young locusts hatch from the egg pods the following year in late March and feed on surrounding grasses. This year the hatching began earlier than usual.

“The alarm bells rang late, but FAO, its incredible NGO partners, local communities and local authorities sprang into immediate action,” outlines Trenchard. “Chemical supplies were low across the country, so we were forced to focus on traditional ‘mechanical control’ methods to reduce the outbreak’s impact.”

The FAO representative says thousands of people in communities across the affected provinces have been working day and night to kill the hopper bands before they become adults and begin to swarm.

“We’ve used our cash-for-work methodology to put money into the pockets of farmers most at risk while accelerating mechanical control in communities across the North and Northeast regions,” continues Trenchard. 

“We have also seen a strong, rapid and encouraging response from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock. However, a lack of resources heavily constrains their capacity to respond.”

Ominous threat to Afghanistan – and beyond
Typically, in such outbreaks, large locust hopper bands and adult swarms move down to cropland areas and eat rain-fed and irrigated wheat and other crops after decimating pasture. There is not a single crop that is spared from Moroccan Locust damage.

If the Moroccan locust population is left untreated, it could increase its numbers by 100-fold next year, creating even more significant problems for agriculture and food security for Afghanistan and its neighbors.

“Chemical control methods are far more effective than mechanical control,” Trenchard explains. “Afghanistan used to have a solid locust control system in place, but this has been heavily eroded in the last two years.”

Trenchard hopes that the mechanical control approaches will reduce the overall impact of the swarms. “But we must start now to prevent 2024 from seeing even bigger outbreaks,” he adds.

In response to the threat, he concludes that funding is urgently needed to support mechanical and chemical control measures alongside on-the-ground surveys to monitor and map locust hatching sites. 

Crops under pressure 
Wheat continues to be a volatile commodity globally amid geo-political uncertainty and natural phenomena. 

Notably, the European Commission recently announced “exceptional and temporary preventative measures” to allow some nations to limit the import of foodstuffs, including wheat, coming from Ukraine and ease logistical bottlenecks.

Just last week, FoodIngredientsFirst reported that fungal diseases are decimating crops, with farmers losing 10% to 23% of their harvests to infections yearly – plus more in postharvest losses. Diminishing yields threaten global food security and scientists are urging agencies worldwide to come together to find new ways to combat infection.

However, “forgotten crops” could be vital in boosting the agri sector’s resilience. 

Through climate niche modeling, new research has identified how forgotten food crops can diversify or replac major staple crops in sub-Saharan Africa by 2070 and benefit micronutrient supply.

Food biodiversity is a topic “often missing from conversations,” Dan Saladino, author of “Eating to Extinction: The World’s Rarest Foods and Why We Need to Save Them,” told FoodIngredientsFirst previously. 

Meanwhile, vertical farming could help alleviate food shortages caused by devastating floods and droughts, but the burgeoning sector faces energy price challenges.