As wheat prices come down from the meteoric highs reached last year, consumers are increasingly wondering why pasta prices keep going up, as the inflation of the staple food in some countries is still accelerating at +20%.

However, the latest inflation data is showing peak pasta inflation might be over.

Italians, the largest per capita consumers of pasta at 23.5 kg a year, were urged by the consumer protection association Assoutenti to boycott pasta temporarily to drive down prices. However, after the publication of May’s inflation data in Italy, the organization has suspended the initiative.

“The pasta emergency seems to have subsided,” says Furio Truzzi, president of Assoutenti.

Earlier this month, French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, agreed with 75 manufacturers to stop raising prices, stating that there will be “checks” and “sanctions,” expressly mentioning pasta prices. Le Maire was hopeful prices for certain products will decrease in July.

Wheat prices down
World common wheat prices have declined across markets and have maintained a decreasing trend since their peak a year ago, according to the European Commission. EU buyers, attracted by lower prices, have almost doubled their wheat imports, with the EU projected to import 35.5 million metric tons of wheat, compared to 19.2 million metric tons last year.

Durum wheat trade, the variety typically used in pasta, is also up 43%.

The FAO Cereal Price Index is 25.3% lower than one year ago, “reflecting prospects for ample global supplies in the upcoming 2023/24 season and the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.” 

Markets benefit from cheap Ukrainian wheat – one of the most affordable in the world at US$220 per ton, down from over US$320 one year ago.

Pasta prices up
According to Eurostat, seven EU nations and the UK are dealing with over 20% year-on-year inflation in pasta products, with Hungary almost reaching 50% as of April 2023.

Pasta prices were up by double digits in Italy in May, higher than the 8% broader inflation rate. However, there are some hopes that pasta prices will abate more pronouncedly in the months ahead. 

“Although prices remain high in some sectors, the trend has reversed course and finally price lists are falling again,” highlights Truzzi.

Italy started monitoring the dynamics of pasta prices through a Rapid Price alert Commission, which Assoutenti says has prevented speculation.

“After the sharp increases recorded in recent months, the accusations of speculation and the threat of a strike launched by Assoutenti, the price lists of fresh and dry pasta are slowing down and growing in May by 12.8%, against 19.5% in February and even 22% last year December.”

The association still calls for “controlled prices in agreement with large-scale distribution, producers and local authorities,” with the government putting a cost cap “to support less well-off families and encourage consumption,” notes Truzzi.

Italian authorities decided last month against capping pasta prices.