The infrastructure collapse in the war-torn territory of Kherson, Ukraine, is flooding farmland around the Dnipro River and will complicate the access to wheat, maize and soybean crops and make harvesting impossible. The catastrophe will also lead to the displacement of farmers and short and long-term agriculture production losses.

Farmers south and west to the dam and in Crimea will also have more difficulties accessing water for irrigation.

To assess the evolving situation, FoodIngredientsFirst speaks with Monika Tothova, UN economist for the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Brian Kuns, geographer at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences and expert in post-Soviet agricultural transformation in southern Ukraine.

Kherson and its surroundings is currently a warzone, and while some agrarian activities have been taking place, agricultural production is limited due to the ongoing fighting, according to the experts. However, damage in areas further away from the active frontline, wher more significant agricultural production has been taking place, are also likely to be affected by floods. 

Short-term damages
According to Kuns, the area produces a range of food commodities, with grains and oilseeds representing the largest share and with vegetable production also significant west of Kherson and in Crimea.

“There will be damages to agricultural production in the short-term related to the dam destruction,” Tothova says.Tothova specifies that before the war started, the oblasts surrounding the dam were “significant” production lands of wheat, barley, maize, soybeans, millet (relatively small quantities), rapeseeds and sunflower. 

“There will be damages to agricultural production in the short-term related to the dam destruction, as the area around the river is agriculturally very productive,” she highlights.

“Actual damage will depend on how long the water will stay on the ground – considering that the destroyed dam is reported to be the biggest dam on the Dnipro River, it is very likely that a large amount of water made its way out,” Tothova explains. 

The UN economist details that winter crops, including wheat, barley and rapeseed, are ripening at this time of the year, particularly in the southern areas. 

“Floods at this point are likely to have a lasting impact by waterlogging – and thus ruining standing crops – and this year’s harvest will probably be a complete loss, depending on how long water stays,” she notes.

“Spring-planted crops (maize, soybeans, sunflower) in the south were planted between April and early May, and there is a good chance they were already established and could survive flooding if not logged for a long time (in areas further away flooded relatively less),” Tothova details.

The extent of the damage will depend on the scale of floods and how fast the water will recede. According to the experts, most damage will be near the dam – in the Kherson area – but other southern regions will probably endure flood damage too.

Long-term impactsThe collapse of the Kakhovka dam is the latest blow to Ukrainian farming capabilities, critical for global food security.
While short-term effects on people, many of whom will be displaced, and agricultural losses are regrettable, “more concerning beyond immediate impact” is the longer-term effects on the ecosystem and consequently also on agricultural production, Tothova explains.

“I think the effects on agricultural production in Kherson oblast are likely to be long-lasting. I don’t think this infrastructure can be repaired quickly, and certainly not in the middle of a war. It’s a disaster of epic proportions,” Kuns highlights. 

Kuns predicts it might not be possible to irrigate the flood-affected land for the foreseeable future. 

“The Kakhovka reservoir was also the source of drinking and irrigation water for temporarily occupied Crimea [under Russian control since 2014], so there will be serious consequences there as well,” he notes.

The collapse of the Kakhovka dam is the latest blow to Ukrainian farming capabilities, which are critical for global food security and stable global food commodity prices. It also comes one week after the Ukraine national academy of agricultural science lowered the country’s forecasted grain production by 5.5 million metric tons to 44.5 million metric tons this year.

Ukraine produced 67 million metric tons of grain in 2022 and 106 million metric tons in 2021.