The demand for food away from home has witnessed a surge in recent years, making restaurants a crucial source of food-related illness outbreaks. 

A new study, conducted by researchers with the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign and Purdue University, has delved into the intricacies of these outbreaks, shedding light on the media and stock market responses to both single-state and multistate incidents. The focus of the research is on Chipotle Mexican Grill, a prominent restaurant chain that faced eight outbreaks between 2015 and 2018.

The study begins by highlighting a startling statistic – over 60 percent of foodborne illness outbreaks in the United States occur at restaurants, and 97 percent of these outbreaks are limited to a single state. Despite the prevalence of such incidents, there is a gap in the understanding of restaurant outbreaks, especially when it comes to single-state occurrences.

Chipotle cases provide a unique lens through which to examine these outbreaks. The study analyzes the media and stock market responses to each of Chipotle’s eight outbreaks, differentiating between single-state and multistate events. The research emphasizes the importance of understanding the financial impact of outbreaks on businesses, given that food away from home constitutes a significant portion of total food expenditures in the U.S.

The results of the study reveal a shift in the dynamics of reporting and market response to single-state outbreaks before and after Chipotle’s multistate E. coli outbreaks. Notably, multistate outbreaks led to swift stock price declines for Chipotle, resulting in a decline of market capitalization of approximately $1.75 million. However, the impact of single-state outbreaks was contingent on their timing rather than their severity.

Before the worse multistate outbreaks, single-state incidents at Chipotle garnered minimal media coverage and inflicted no financial losses. In contrast, after the multistate events, single-state outbreaks resulted in national media attention and substantial financial impacts, indicating a significant change in perception.

The research draws attention to the efficient market hypothesis, suggesting that stock prices should reflect the value of information contained in outbreak announcements. Chipotle’s publicly traded status allows for a clear evaluation of the financial impact through stock price changes, enabling insights into how price discovery takes place.

The study underscores the importance of investing in outbreak prevention, particularly for restaurants. It also emphasizes that outbreaks at restaurants, often stemming from factors like sick workers or improper food handling, are preventable with the right training and policies.