The lucrative truffle industry could disappear within a generation as a result of climate change, predicts a new study. The industry is estimated to be worth £4.5 billion (US$5.7 billion) over the next two decades but new research suggests that if climate change really starts to bite, truffle production will have a much bleaker future.

A warmer and drier climate will be responsible for the decline – which will have a “huge economic, ecological and social impact” – and could be accelerated by other factors, such as heatwave events, forest fires, pests and diseases.

That is the assertion of University of Stirling academic Dr. Paul Thomas, from the Faculty of Natural Sciences, who led the research which comes shortly after leading body of experts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its stark warning about climate change.

Following three years of research, the IPCC report says that a rise of more than 1.5°C could be exceeded by 2030 unless drastic steps are taken now. With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society. However, this would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, it says.

With the truffle species Tuber melanosporum trading at more than £1,000 (US$1,283) per kilogram, the industry is worth hundreds of millions of pounds. Also called the black truffle, Périgord truffle or French black truffle, it is a species of truffle native to Southern Europe and is one of the most expensive edible mushrooms in the world and also one of the world’s most expensive ingredients.

Black truffles are prized for their intense flavor and aroma, but they are difficult and time-consuming to grow and harvest and are normally confined to regions with a Mediterranean climate. However, the Mediterranean habitat has been affected by drought due to long-term climate change causing yields to fall while the global demand continues to rise.

Last November, the Tuber melanosporum was successfully cultivated in the UK for the first time, as climate change threatens its native habitat. This is the farthest north that the species has ever been found. It was grown as part of a program in Monmouthshire, South Wales, run by Mycorrhizal Systems Ltd (MSL) in collaboration with local farmers and the results show that truffle cultivation may be possible in many parts of the UK. MSL partners with landowners, supporting truffle production from orchard establishment to harvesting and distribution.

The latest research, which is the first study to consider the future threat of climate change on European truffle production, predicts that, under the most likely climate change scenario, European truffle production will decline by between 78 and 100 percent between 2071 and 2100.

“However, the decline may well occur in advance of this date, when other climate change factors are taken into account, such as heatwaves, forest fires, drought events, pests and disease,” says Dr. Thomas.

“We risk losing an industry worth hundreds of millions of pounds to the economy. However, the socio-economic impact of the predicted decline could be substantially larger as truffle harvesting and related activities form a key component of local history and cultural activity.”

Dr. Thomas, working with colleagues from the University of Cambridge, studied continuous records, spanning 36 years, of Mediterranean truffle yield in France, Spain and Italy.

The team correlated the data with local weather conditions to assess the impact of climate on production – and combined the results with state-of-the-art climate model projections to predict the likely impact of climate change on truffle yields.

“This is a wake-up call to the impacts of climate change in the not-too-distant future,” Dr. Thomas adds. “These findings indicate that conservational initiatives are required to afford some protection to this important and iconic species. Potential action could include the expansion of truffle plantations into new territories of a more favorable future climate.”

“Management strategies should further include mulching materials and cultivation practices to mitigate soil temperature fluctuations and conserve soil moisture.”

The study, entitled “A risk assessment of Europes black truffle sector under predicted climate change,” is published in Science of the Total Environment.