Most meat of the future will not come from slaughtered animals – instead, by 2040 the majority (60 percent) will be derived from cultured meat or plant-based alternatives that look and taste like meat, reveals a new report. As the environmental impacts of conventional meat production, alongside ethical and welfare concerns linked to industrial farming, continue to influence consumers globally, the shift towards meat alternatives will overtake traditionally produced animal meat within 20 years.

The cultured meat movement may still be in its infancy, but over the next two decades there will be a dramatic change, according to the report from US global management consulting firm AT Kearney. The report estimates that 35 percent of all meat will be cultured by this time, and a further 25 percent will be vegan plant-based replacements.

Although cultured meat products have yet to reach consumers, this is not too far away and AT Kearney predicts cultured meat will dominate in the long term. The fact that it reproduces the taste and feel of conventional meat more closely than plant-based alternatives, is key, the report says. 

Novel vegan meat replacements and cultured meat have the potential to disrupt the meat industry, and cell- and fermentation-based technology companies will leverage their intellectual property to cover as much animal products as possible, says the report, which is based on expert interviews. 

And as more investors are drawn by the potential for increased demand for meat alternatives, the category is set for further rapid growth and will soon become more crowded. 

The continual appeal of “non-slaughtered” will be driven by sustainability issues, climate change impacts and a multitude of concerns about the livestock sector such as antibiotic use as well as the land, water, feed and other resources it takes to raise cattle. 

“In the light of climate emergency and with conversations about animal exploitation increasingly in the public eye, we welcome the findings of this report,” Dominika Piasecka, spokeswoman for The Vegan Society, tells FoodIngredientsFirst. 

“Clean meat and meat alternatives are better for the animals, the planet and our health, and it’s inevitable that society will switch to consuming these products instead of animals. Having said that, we encourage people to recognize and adopt the viable solution right now: living a vegan lifestyle.”

A number of meat alternatives are evolving – each with potential to disrupt the multi-million dollar global meat industry. The essential questions are, however: which of these new products has the most disruption potential, what are the resulting shifts within the value chain, and who will benefit the most? 

based on its work in the global agriculture, food and meat industry, AT Kearney sheds some light on the major trends in this report, which also highlights that the total market for plant-based alternatives was around US$4.6 billion in 2018, with a growth projection of 20 to 30 percent per year (depending on region), for the next several years. 

“As this represents a small fraction of the US$1,000 billion global meat market, a lot of upside potential remains,” the report notes. 

The undeniable shift in this space has been gaining traction for some time but innovation and research is ramping up for both plant-based food and cultured meat. “Cultured meat will win in the long run. However, novel vegan meat replacements will be essential in the transition phase,” the report says.

What are the drivers of this seismic shift away from slaughtered-animal meat?
Consumers are more conscious than ever about making responsible food choices that are not only healthy, but that also take sustainability and ethical considerations into account. This continues to drive NPD in the plant-based category, which is booming amid a rise in the number of people identifying as vegan, vegetarian, flexitarian or meat-reducers. 

At the same time, the race to feed the world’s growing population sustainably is driving companies to explore alternative food options. By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach 9.8 billion and affordable and sustainable nutrition is set to become much more essential alongside the inclusion of plant proteins.

According to data from Innova Market Insights, there has been a 45 percent average annual growth of food & beverage launches with a vegan positioning (CAGR, 2013-2017). New launches with a vegan positioning increased their market penetration in Europe from 1.5 percent in 2013, to 7 percent in 2017.

Plant-based meats will continue to dominate this year as the number of meat alternative products is increasing all of the time. This is marked by a multitude of key players moving beyond their traditional offerings to capitalize on the popularity of plant-based products.

Just yesterday, the Vivera Foodgroup set its sights on a meatless future following the divestiture of meat company Enkco. The group’s remaining plant-based companies – Vivera, Culifrost and Dutch Tofu Company – will reportedly enjoy large-scale investments in the coming period to expand production capacity and product range. 

Aleph Farms, an Israeli cultured meat innovator and food tech start-up best known for introducing a lab-grown minute steak, raised US$12 million in series A investments in May, with investors including Cargill Protein.

The highly innovative Californian company behind the plant-based alternative burger, Beyond Meat, has been getting much attention recently, particularly when it went public at the beginning of May.  

In May 2016, Beyond Meat released the first plant-based burger to be sold in the meat section of grocery stores, internationally. The company has products designed to replac chicken meat, beef, and pork sausage.

Tyson Foods purchased a 5 percent stake in Beyond Meat in October 2016 and exited the investment in April, ahead of the companys IPO, in order to create its own version. 

In January, Beyond Meat partnered with Carl’s Jr. to launch a plant-based burger, The Beyond Famous Star, to keep pace with the growing appetite for flexitarian food, while Nestlé’s debuted its plant-based meat-free burger in April. Just yesterday, the company announced that its breakfast sandwiches are being offered in almost 4,000 Tim Horton restaurants in Canada.

The strength of the meat-free category was also highlighted last December when Unilever acquired Netherlands headquartered meat alternative innovator The Vegetarian Butcher, bolstering its position in the meat-free segment. This is another example of how industry is reacting as the British-Dutch transnational consumer goods company is looking to expand its portfolio into plant-based foods that are healthy and have a lower environmental impact. 

What’s next?
In just 20 years, only 40 percent of the world’s meat will still come from conventional meat sources, as indicated in the report. The years ahead will be filled with innovation, research, acquisitions, breakthroughs and global dietary shifts on a historic scale as innovators rush to commercialize a swathe of cultured meat products and continue to evolve the plant-based alternatives space as consumers readjust their hearts, minds and palates to meat that does not come from dead animals. 

By Gaynor Selby