African swine fever (ASF) – a contagious deadly viral disease affecting pigs and wild boars – is rapidly spreading across East and Southeast Asia. The escalation is threatening the livelihood and food security of millions of people, and particularly of vulnerable subsistence pig farmers. This is according to a new Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, which also details how adverse weather conditions are exacerbating food security across many countries, impacting crop yields and pushing up prices. 

The disease poses a serious threat to the livelihood and food security of large numbers of people relying on the production and processing of pigs. Pig meat accounts for almost half of the meat quantity produced in the subregion and is a key source of animal protein and income.

The report notes that “despite the actions taken by the Government of China, ASF continues to spread.”

In China, as of mid-June, the disease has been reported in 32 out of the 34 provincial-level administrative divisions and more than 1.1 million pigs have perished or have been culled. In addition, the disease has been reported in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia, the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, affecting millions of pigs. There is no treatment or vaccine available for ASF.

ASF is also having a significant impact on global markets, with prices of pig meat rising between February and May 2019. One of the main drivers of the epidemic is the small-scale structure of most of the pig industry in the subregion, the report notes. This hampers the implementation of biosecurity standards, an important control measure that can contribute to halting the spread of the disease. 

Additionally, intra-regional trade of pig meat products, which may be contaminated, has also contributed to the high prevalence. As a result, animal health experts believe that the disease will inevitably spread farther in the coming months.

This raises concerns regarding the livelihood and food security situation of the most vulnerable subsistence farmers, as they lack the expertise and funds to protect their herds. Reports from the countries have already indicated that animal losses have caused reductions in farmers’ incomes.

Moreover, the decline in pig meat production and the depletion of the current frozen stocks are expected to result in price hikes.

The risk for the progressive spread of the disease in the region remains high due to resistance of the ASF virus to environmental factors and disinfectants, says the report. In addition, a large number of value chain actors, including with long-distance transportation of pigs, pork products, feed and other supplies, and prevailing small scale pig farming with low level of biosecurity, make it difficult to control the spread.

Impact on markets
In China (mainland), the prices of pig meat soared between February and early March. They have since stabilized due to the release of frozen stocks into markets, in response to the high prices, and increased sales of fresh meat, as pig producers decided to slaughter more animals over concerns about the future impact of ASF. 

The international market has also reacted to concerns about the impact of the disease, the report explains. In a move that partly reflects the risk posed by ASF to pig supplies, price hikes were registered in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) between February and May 2019. 

From May 1, Chinese pork processors have been testing for the presence of the virus following a mandate from China’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) which insists the country is capable of controlling ASF. However, the losses spreading through China’s pork industry are beginning to move global pork prices and the US has already put safeguards in place as fears escalate over possible contamination risks. 

The ASF-prevention measures introduced by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) include ramped up coordination with customs and border patrols at key US airports and seaports and strengthening inspections.

The measures to prevent the spread of ASF to the US are particularly poignant to the US pork industry because of the ongoing trade dispute with China, which has been causing problems for many months now.

The ASF outbreak is also giving new opportunities to Indian meat exporters who are gearing up to plug the gaps in supply as China, the world’s largest consumer of pork, looks to alternative markets.

There is also lack of vertical integration in the pork industry in most of the affected countries, which means that piglets and sows need to be transported between farms and sometimes even across the regions, the FAO report notes.

“Animal health experts believe that the disease will inevitably spread farther in the coming months. This is expected to have far-reaching implications within as well as outside the subregion,” it says. 

Rainfall deficits undermine food production
Aside from the report’s special feature on ASF, it also examines the impact of extreme weather conditions on agricultural crops around the world. 

Cyclone damage and rainfall deficits in 2019 caused significant agricultural production shortfalls in Southern Africa, resulting in substantial increases in cereal import needs. Harvests declined for a second consecutive year in Zimbabwe and Zambia, while neighboring countries also registered production cuts driven by unfavorable weather, including cyclone-hit Mozambique. 

Food insecurity in Zimbabwe is likely to worsen considerably in 2019, exacerbated by large spikes in staple food prices and the economic downturn, notes the report. In East Africa, severe dryness negatively affected first season harvests and led to a degradation of rangeland conditions. The largest year-on-year cereal production decreases in 2019, in relative terms, are expected in Kenya, Somalia and the Sudan, wher harvests are anticipated at below-average levels, the report notes.

In Asia, a below-average 2018/19 wheat and barley outputs are expected in the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and there are also concerns for the main 2019 season crops, to be gathered by October, largely due to reduced rainfall and low irrigation water availability. 

Chronic conflicts take toll on food security
In the Near East, despite the generally conducive weather conditions for crops, ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen continued to hinder agricultural production potential by limiting input availability and increasing cost of production.

In Yemen, in the December 2018-January 2019 period, about 15.9 million people faced severe acute food insecurity. 

Likewise, in Africa, the dire food security situation in a number of countries, including the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan, is a result of persisting conflicts and insecurity. In South Sudan, in particular, the number of severely food insecure people was estimated at almost seven million.

Meanwhile, there are some favorable 2019 crop prospects for Latin America and Europe. Cereal production in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2019 is forecast to reach a record high of 274 million tons, notes the report. This mostly reflects a strong recovery in maize production in South America, mainly the result of enlarged plantings and improved yields.

Wheat production in 2019 is poised to rebound in the EU, Russia and Ukraine mainly due to favorable weather conditions and larger plantings. 

By Gaynor Selby 

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