Pork imports by China will decline this year compared to last, with implications for prices and supply in the United States and the rest of the world, according to a quarterly report from Rabobank.

The report notes that in 2020, China imported a record amount of pork meat and processed products. Total imports were 5.56 million metric tons, which was an 85% increase over 2019. The main factors were the pandemic and the continuing impact of African swine flu. However, the report noted, China’s pork imports are expected to decline between 10% and 30% this year as its domestic hog herds recover, nudging domestic production up by 10% to 15%.

As for the U.S. pork market, exports are expected to be strong but not as high as last year due to the Chinese situation. Still, a weaker dollar and more favorable trade policies should help boost exports. Domestically, pork production for the last quarter of 2020 was up 2.8%. Production in 2021 should compare favorably with pandemic-suppressed production last year, although the report notes that high feed prices and increased disease will limit growth.

“At current prices, hog producers are operating below break-even and are unlikely to move quickly to restore production,” the report notes.