The UK’s food system stakeholders are flagging a plethora of oncoming Brexit and COVID-19 impacts, while forecasting what is likely to play out over the next three years. 

Key findings from an Institute of Food Science and Technology (IFST) report point to increasing food system complexity across Britain’s supply chains, particularly concerning food regulation based on the UK exiting the EU and moving towards more “devolved governance.”

This is likely to impact both the freedom to operate and the application of science and technology innovation by food organizations, warns the report. Additionally, IFST members raised concerns over food standards and agreed that dilution of these standards could lead to quality issues.

Inadvertent mistakes and deliberate food fraud could all manifest in the coming three years, warn the members. Urgent action is therefore needed to mitigate such outcomes.

“Foresight is always valuable and can be used to support food system preparedness and allow potential impacts to be considered and perhaps engineer them out – whether it’s related to operations, products, processes or policy,” Rachel Ward, scientific policy director at IFST, tells FoodIngredientsFirst.

Drawing on the combined expertise of its professional membership base, IFST has gathered insights for the future in its latest Horizon Scanning Report (2020 to 2023).

These subjects were discussed in more detail at a virtual workshop held in January, involving the participation of around 50 IFST members.

Calls for shorter, smarter supply chains
The UK imports a large proportion of its food and there will be increasing competition for the supply following Brexit, noted one workshop attendee. “We need to look to becoming more self-sufficient, even if that means reducing the wide variety of choices that we have at present.”

“It is to be expected that nutrition will become more personalized but without confidence in supply this will be hard to deliver.”

Lengthy supply chains are inevitably riskier and can make traceability and detection of fraud more difficult, flags IFST. Dealing with agents and brokers can be a source of problems regarding food safety, transparency and integrity of data and the information provided.

Whatever new supply chain arrangements are established, they will need to be secure, safe, sustainable and ethical, which may lead to companies adopting more sophisticated IT-based supply chain mapping technologies. It will also encourage some manufacturers to explore more local supplies, IFST envisions.

“The new era of life of the UK outside of the EU also has potential effects on the raw materials supply chain and may impact on the ready availability of existing or substitute ingredients,” said one workshop attendee.

“We do not know what effect trade deals will have on the supply of food and what the food standards are going to be,” commented another.

Members also warned that public trust in the food supply chain continues to erode as industry steps forward in a post-Brexit world, and this is something that needs to be “deliberately and positively addressed.”

Need for access to talent and skills
At the workshop, members expressed concerns that career opportunities and progression are likely to be impeded by the spending cuts by companies. This is expected to hinder longer-term R&D and investment in technical skills for the F&B sector.

They feared this could be exacerbated by Britain leaving the EU and the reduced involvement of UK academic institutions and businesses in large collaborative EU research projects. Some voiced concerns that Brexit could also diminish opportunities for them to develop their careers with EU-based organizations.

“We need to encourage students from a greater breadth of diversity of background, age and gender to choose these subjects and the industry to provide them training,” remarks one respondent.

“I see education in practical aspects of food science such as microstructure, rheology, physics and modelling as applied to food innovation and processing is lacking,” comments another.

Climate change to weigh down productivity
While a warming climate would make certain crops more difficult to grow in the UK, it would also allow others that have not traditionally been possible to be produced, remarks a member.

“There are clearly risks around being able to produce what we have always been able to produce,” they comment, citing the example of blackcurrants, which are only grown in the UK.

“But for all the things that we can’t grow, there are probably things that we can now grow that we couldn’t before.”

However, for many parts of the world – especially those in communities only “marginally surviving” at present – climate change will be catastrophic, tipping them into even greater poverty and probably starvation, warns IFST.

Opportunities to advance food-tech
Conversely, analytical test method capability and digital technologies were seen as opportunities to influence and impact innovation, food safety and regulatory compliance and address issues of food fraud.

Compared with other manufacturing sectors such as automotive and aerospace, the report highlighted that much of the UK’s food processing – especially within SMEs – has not changed for many years and is very “low tech” with limited investment due to low margins, which results in companies having to sweat their assets.

The analysis also raises concerns about insufficient support for capital investment in new technologies, in areas such as Industry 4.0 and the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), which enable greater automation through connected smart technology.

“With Industry 4.0 and ‘digital native’ generation coming through we need to galvanize their interest in food and technology and combine this as a career in the food industry,” one workshop group noted.

Limited access to skilled food technical professionals and decreased investment in technical resources by all types of organizations across the UK food system were considered barriers to leveraging these and other technology opportunities.

Future of the food system
Given the timing of the initial survey and the sentiment of the respondents, the overwhelming conclusion was one of concern for the future of the food system. However, the report’s authors state they are confident they can continue to meet consumer demand and provide safe and nutritious choices.

“Regular horizon scanning is indispensable to enable a proactive stance in dealing with new challenges and opportunities. IFST has a unique opportunity to use its members as eyes and ears on new developments in food science and technology,” says Dr. John O’ Brien, chair of IFST’s External Advisory Group.

“The expertise of the Institute has been used to interpret and structure the results of our recent horizon scan to provide a resource both for the membership and wider society.”