A year ago, a landmark agreement between Russia and Ukraine, facilitated by the UN and Turkey, opened the way for millions of metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs to leave Ukraine’s ports, easing global food shortages and stabilizing prices.

Next week the deal will celebrate one year from its inception and will also expire and if it will be renewed is still unclear.

Through the sea corridor, more than 32 million metric tons of food commodities coming from Ukraine have been exported to 45 countries across three continents, according to the UN. Moreover, food prices have dropped 23% from their peak in March 2022.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization signaled that prices continued to decline in June. 

The deal also supplied half of the World Food Program’s (WFP) wheat grain in 2022, helping transport 725,000 metric tons of wheat to people in need in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.

Repeated threads of non-renewal
However, for many months, Russian authorities have been threatening not to renew the deal if the West doesn’t hear their long-held demands: Allowing the free flow of Russian ammonia, normalizing Russian agricultural exports and the unfreezing of financial activities related to food trade.

Russia has also criticized that the deal has benefited a few rich countries that have captured most of the exports.

“We have repeated statements from the Russian Federation saying that there’s been no advantage to them and its time’s up. Well, of course, as the secretary general has made clear, this doesn’t deter us from doing everything we can to work for renewal,” says Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator at the UN.

“I don’t really know what’s in the minds of the parties who will decide on renewal or termination in the middle of July,”

“We continue to work very hard [to renew the deal]. The world has seen the value of the Black Sea Initiative, this isn’t something you chuck away.”

Griffiths also underscored how the UN and Turkey are working for future extensions to go for at least three months and not the current two months.

The never-ending story of last-second renewals
While Russia has cried wolf before about wanting to abandon negotiation and let the deal expire, the involved parties, until now, have always reached a deal in the eleventh hour.

In May, the last renewal date of the deal, a two-month extension was negotiated one day before the agreement was set to expire.

In February,  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin called an extension of the deal “unreasonable” just before the country agreed to a renewal. 

In November, Russia pulled out of talks just to rejoin them at the last second to sign a 120-day extension.

While the minister of exteriors of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, has reiterated that there is “no point” in renegotiating the deal, Russia is still in talks and open to conversation about the topic. 

The president of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, said over the weekend that he is in talks with Russia to extend the deal and that Putin will visit the country in August.

The UN has made repeated calls to allow concessions for Russian fertilizer and ammonia exports that would ease the brokering of a deal.

“The UN Secretary-General has emphasized the importance of increased fertilizer and ammonia supplies to support global food security. However, to date, no fertilizer or ammonia has been exported under the initiative,” says the UN.

Slow inspections undermine food exports
The UN warns that food exports through the initiative have declined significantly in recent months due to slow inspections.

“From a record daily average high of 11 inspections in October 2022, the daily average has fallen below five in April, May, and June 2023. Monthly exports peaked at 4.2 million metric tons in October 2022 but were only 1.3 million metric tons in May 2023.”

Inspections are based on a consensus system, so one single party can slow down the tempo of the operations. 

Russia has been accused by Ukraine in the past of slowing down inspections, undermining global food security. Slow inspections have been a recurring issue. At one point last October, over 160 vessels were stuck in a queue near the inspection point in the Bosphorus strait in Turkey.

Initiative in numbers
Of the over 32 million metric tons of exported foodstuff, more than half (16.8 million metric tons) have been corn, followed by wheat (8.9 million metric tons) and sunflower meal and oil (3.6 million metric tons combined).

The UN’s latest data puts China as the biggest winner of the Black Sea food corridor, receiving 8 million metric tons of food, followed by Spain with 6 million metric tons, Turkey with 3.2 million metric tons and Italy with 2.1 million metric tons. In Africa, the largest importer is Egypt with 791,400 million metric tons.