Agricultural supply disruptions and price volatility are at an all-time high and keep getting worse with climate change, according to Francisco Martin-Rayo, CEO of Helios AI. The Virginia, US-based company has unveiled an AI tool that enhances supply chain resilience by predicting the price and availability of agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, cocoa, coffee, rice, sugarcane, soybeans and palm oil. 

The platform, CommodiTrack, provides agrifood buyers and traders access to the climate risks impacting crops and allows them to “track, forecast and strategize” accordingly to predict “wher and why” disruptions are likely to occur.

This tool comes as climate change continues to wreak havoc on global crop supplies, pressurizing agricultural farmlands and suppressing pollinator counts. These issues have also culminated in the skyrocketing of prices for essential crops, which the F&B industry is trying to tackle with strategies like reduced quantity mass and research focused on climate-resilient and climate-smart crops.

“Over the past 12 months we’ve seen the price of cocoa more than triple, mango prices go up by five times and potato prices double. As the impacts of climate change accelerate, these disruptions in agri-food products will only increase,” Martin-Rayo tells Food Ingredients First.

“Historically, agri-food procurement teams could rely on relatively stable supply globally and multiple sourcing points (for example, if you couldn’t get your cocoa from Ghana, you could get it from Cote d’Ivoire), but as our world changes that strategy no longer works.”

He believes that a “combination of the extremes and changing trends” are leading to more crop failures and lower yields globally.

“It’s an extraordinarily challenging time for supply chain professionals in the agri-food space. Many of them were able to rely historically on single sourcing, either from one supplier or one region. With disruptions at an all-time high and accelerating globally, that’s no longer possible.”

“The future is here”

Without technology, procurement teams will continue to be “behind the curve and wait for their suppliers to inform them they can’t fulfill their contracts.” Then, they will pay double on the open market to make up for the shortfalls, flags Martin-Rayo.

“The future is here — and it’s one wher AI tools like Helios can free you up from the drudgery of mundane data collection and reacting to crises, and instead give you time back for more strategic work and the ability to get ahead of these disruptions.”

“With Helios’ AI platform, procurement teams are able to predict and get ahead of these disruptions — so you have more time to find alternative suppliers before prices jump.”

AI is driving landmark changes in the F&B industry, with wide-reaching impacts through food innovation, trend analysis and upskilling employees.

“AI is the most extraordinary technological revolution of our generation, and it’s giving agri-food procurement teams an enormous lift in terms of understanding the risks to their supply chains,” says Martin-Rayo.

Earlier this month, Grub Market turned to AI to develop a data visualization tool that provides real-time business insights to food supply chain businesses.

Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is also unlocking AI to advance crops, insect protection and climate change forecasts.

Averting disruptions with machine learning

CommodiTrack uses Helios’ proprietary climate risk data set, which includes over 500 billion unique risk signals generated by custom machine learning models specific to each of the 50+ crops being tracked, rather than generic weather information. 

The tool has a feature called Weighted Average Risk Ratio or WA%R, which quantifies climate risk by assessing the number of high-risk locations within the global market. The higher the WA%R, the greater the likelihood of a price shift for the commodity. 

For instance, Helios’ climate risk platform saw a dramatic increase in the WA%R for cocoa in December 2023, going from single digits to above 30%, giving a strong “buy” signal weeks before the unprecedented price increase.

Additionally, the tool recently helped Helios predict a disruption in bananas months before the price skyrocketed.

“In January 2024, the price of bananas was ~US$1.20/kg. By July 2024 the price had surged to US$1.75/kg (a 45% increase), which significantly impacted consumers, trading firms and retailers,” says Martin-Rayo.

“Helios’ customers were able to track and get ahead of this risk in real-time. As early as January 2024 our platform flagged the growing climate risks (drought and heat waves) across these markets.”

The team also tracked real-time political and economic risk considerations, helping customers flag additional pressure on supply chains months before prices increased.

Beyond climate risk analysis

Besides climate data analysis, Helios also offers the “most comprehensive agri-food procurement insights platform in the world,” notes Martin-Rayo.

These include price forecasting and trading signals, trade insights for historical data on the top ten exporters and importers over the past decade, detailed information on the top ten producers of each commodity over the past decade and long-term trend analysis of production, yield, beginning stocks and harvest for supply chain visibility.

Looking ahead

The platform currently covers 52 crops and the company is starting to expand to new products (eggs) and processed categories (potato chips, tortilla chips).

“We’re also launching Logistics and Political Risks in a few months, which will allow our customers to track all of their agri-food supply chain risks on a single platform,” Martin-Rayo concludes.