The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that the global food import bill could increase by 2.2% from 2023 to more than US$2 trillion this year due to higher prices for cocoa, coffee and tea. Higher import costs for fruits and vegetables could also buoy these figures. 

Meanwhile, import bills for cereals and oilseeds are in decline, offering respite to lower-income countries.

High-income countries account for two-thirds of the global food import bill and are expected to see a 4.4% decrease in 2024. Bills for upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income and low-income countries are likely to shrink.

The forecast features in FAO’s Food Outlook, a biannual publication dedicated to global market developments.

Coffee, cocoa and tea prices peak

import expenditures on cocoa, coffee and tea are expected to rise by 22.9%, contributing more than half of the overall increase in value. The prediction considers the increase in the prices of these commodities to be driven by climate change and logistical disruptions.

The organization notes that cocoa prices reached four times their ten-year average at the beginning of 2024, while coffee costs almost doubled. Tea recorded a 15% increase above usual long-term levels.

FAO economists mention that the export of these commodities bolsters the economies of various countries, such as Burundi and Ethiopia, wher coffee earnings cover 40% of food import bills. Tea holds a similar value in Sri Lanka’s bill, and cocoa exports offset Côte d’Ivoire’s food import costs.

Major food commodities

FAO notes that global production systems are affected by weather events, geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes. Combined, these could tip the demand-supply balances and hinder international trade and food security developments.

The agency expects wheat and coarse grains output to decrease in 2024 from high levels but remain above utilization rates. Rice shows growth, with the 2024/25 season poised to break harvest records. This could trigger global rice utilization as reserves and trade flourish.

Additionally, per capita food intake of wheat and coarse grains might decline in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (currently 44), while rice is expected to increase by 1.5%.

Global meat and dairy production is predicted to rise moderately while sugar faces a dip. Global fisheries’ output may increase by 2.2% because of advances in aquaculture. Soybean and palm oil outputs are also expected to improve while rapeseed and sunflower seeds shrink.

Vegetable oil consumption may surpass production and result in stock drawdowns for the second consecutive season.

Climate change mars olive oil output

In its thematic investigation into olive oil, FAO finds that wholesale prices of cold-pressed extra virgin olive oil reached US$ 9,818 per metric ton in January 2024, compared to US$3,655 two years earlier in Jaen, Spain. Year-on-year production declines drive the spike in prices.

High temperatures force olive trees to reserve water for core functions instead of bearing fruit, slashing production by half for two consecutive years in Spain. Similar patterns are observed in the larger Mediterranean region.

Current conditions indicate that Spain’s 2024 harvest could rise above a ten-year average, with Greece, Tunisia and Türkiye recording improved output. Even then, high prices will impede olive oil consumption for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, fertilizer trade volumes have dipped. According to FAO economist Maria Antip, a further escalation of conflict in the Near East could affect the supply of the main fertilizers, particularly impacting Latin America and Asia.